Will "scud" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

32 of 2087 launches in the last hour referenced "scud" (9 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 2.37×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27844469855484394,
      "momentum": 0.8625876084499623,
      "diversity": -0.5625
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5262190819284304
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "scud",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.03687821612349914,
    "share60": 0.015565134099616858,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2087,
    "momentum": 2.369283546642037,
    "diversity": 0.28125,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 32,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 329,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965930555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994321759259259
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5262190819284304
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.023409377507738163,
  "totalAfter": 9393,
  "shareBefore": 0.002238858182327013,
  "totalBefore": 14293,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 32
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity