Ledger / Prediction #12 · narrative · 1H
Will "please" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 1349 launches in the last hour referenced "please" (4 distinct creators, rank #91). Last 15m momentum 2.64×.
Made2026-10-09 06:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 05:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": 0.9701865000792873,
"diversity": -0.21428571428571433
},
"rawProbability": 0.6239555133774002
},
"features": {
"term": "please",
"rank60": 91,
"share15": 0.014657980456026058,
"share60": 0.005555555555555556,
"total15": 306,
"total60": 1349,
"momentum": 2.6384364820846904,
"diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 170,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9968630555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968630555555555
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6239555133774002
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 07:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.141
Log loss0.472
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.019904458598726114,
"shareRatio": 3.670485282418457,
"totalAfter": 1256,
"shareBefore": 0.005162241887905605,
"totalBefore": 1356,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 25,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 7
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 62% that "please" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 1.99% (+286%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "please" (1H). momentum contributed +0.97 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
1162512e12306b596e2bb4535f816773dfd6ee9bbdc20857649c91c6beeb67afPrevious hash
3a8e63604a3a7a3d79961131aa28d5f2c7e4032673b7dfdae777e279572682d4