GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #12 · narrative · 1H

Will "please" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1349 launches in the last hour referenced "please" (4 distinct creators, rank #91). Last 15m momentum 2.64×.

Made2026-10-09 06:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 05:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 0.9701865000792873,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6239555133774002
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "please",
    "rank60": 91,
    "share15": 0.014657980456026058,
    "share60": 0.005555555555555556,
    "total15": 306,
    "total60": 1349,
    "momentum": 2.6384364820846904,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 170,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968630555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968630555555555
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6239555133774002
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 07:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.141
Log loss0.472
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.019904458598726114,
  "shareRatio": 3.670485282418457,
  "totalAfter": 1256,
  "shareBefore": 0.005162241887905605,
  "totalBefore": 1356,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 25,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 62% that "please" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.52% → 1.99% (+286%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "please" (1H). momentum contributed +0.97 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1162512e12306b596e2bb4535f816773dfd6ee9bbdc20857649c91c6beeb67af
Previous hash3a8e63604a3a7a3d79961131aa28d5f2c7e4032673b7dfdae777e279572682d4