Ledger / Prediction #1200 · narrative · 6H

Will "aura" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2087 launches in the last hour referenced "aura" (5 distinct creators, rank #227). Last 15m momentum 1.38×.

Made2026-10-11 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.3202633176246007,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5033319721265895
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "aura",
    "rank60": 227,
    "share15": 0.004288164665523156,
    "share60": 0.0031130268199233715,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2087,
    "momentum": 1.3774904340942078,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 329,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965930555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994321759259259
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5033319721265895
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 07:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.247

Log loss0.687

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0038326413286489938,
  "shareRatio": 1.4060442566356657,
  "totalAfter": 9393,
  "shareBefore": 0.002728608409711047,
  "totalBefore": 14293,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 36,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 39
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "aura" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.27% → 0.38% (+40%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "aura" (6H). momentum contributed +0.32 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash62576e64e2028bde277cc8ad0c050ff302ca51140bba6d541d23656421236447

Previous hash095a9443079b8321c9418ee217107459f6d692fd09d52d85acdebf375bdfd82e