Ledger / Prediction #1202 · narrative · 24H

Will "dex" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 2087 launches in the last hour referenced "dex" (8 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 2.88×.

Made2026-10-11 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": 1.0567211965893524,
      "diversity": -0.58
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5181776247839548
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dex",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.04202401372212693,
    "share60": 0.01460727969348659,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2087,
    "momentum": 2.876922644321345,
    "diversity": 0.26666666666666666,
    "launches15": 24,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 329,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965930555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998580439814815
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5181776247839548
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.269

Log loss0.730

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002119602753102003,
  "shareRatio": 0.9705847692330055,
  "totalAfter": 41989,
  "shareBefore": 0.002185792349726776,
  "totalBefore": 48495,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 89,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 106
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "dex" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.22% → 0.21% (-3%). PARTIAL.

— "dex" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha1a72064384bc9fbeac305ffa15a0b121f4f723b46e4995db344948ce03c6243

Previous hash44943fe4369321bf1322130d5aca449e5410802019d2b8e6aa37924ab424e040