Ledger / Prediction #1208 · token · 6H

Will $BESTCOIN still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 21m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "ollie". Creator launched 52 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-11 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "Ayxf5vNwxn6BZSF1Z2RscorSenU1D16vrfXFNqeQpump",
    "name": "Ollie",
    "symbol": "BESTCOIN",
    "hotTerms": [
      "ollie"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 21,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 35,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2900.3752345539697,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 52
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 756,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 07:01 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T00:40:11.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 5604.05139607192,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 9917.850190701833,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2900.3752345539697,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5800.750469107939
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $BESTCOIN would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $5,604, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $BESTCOIN (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbd6ea2581ba26a5e1c0ea86a553222110e0449a2db1c73e5a21b621ab2335f33

Previous hash11afffd39ec9c55aa3d9c7603eba8e168e877f3852d3d5d1f8f0b73c54b9deff