Will "supra" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

85 of 2038 launches in the last hour referenced "supra" (3 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.18×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4249820016084324,
      "momentum": 0.16901360176286795,
      "diversity": -0.8576470588235294
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.36270300507246667
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "supra",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.049653579676674366,
    "share60": 0.041932319764590484,
    "total15": 432,
    "total60": 2038,
    "momentum": 1.1841362451548425,
    "diversity": 0.03529411764705882,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 85,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 326,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932502777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932502777777777
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.36270300507246667
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0495565988523735,
  "shareRatio": 1.1955771423693053,
  "totalAfter": 1917,
  "shareBefore": 0.041423001949317736,
  "totalBefore": 2052,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 95,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity