Will "moonchacha" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2038 launches in the last hour referenced "moonchacha" (3 distinct creators, rank #193). Last 15m momentum 2.83×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 1.0386514188059746,
      "diversity": -0.38571428571428573
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5995061851039403
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "moonchacha",
    "rank60": 193,
    "share15": 0.010392609699769052,
    "share60": 0.003678273663560569,
    "total15": 432,
    "total60": 2038,
    "momentum": 2.8254041570438795,
    "diversity": 0.42857142857142855,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 326,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932502777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932502777777777
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5995061851039403
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01773604590505999,
  "shareRatio": 4.923774765380605,
  "totalAfter": 1917,
  "shareBefore": 0.00341130604288499,
  "totalBefore": 2052,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 34,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity