GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1214 · narrative · 6H

Will "wtf" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 2038 launches in the last hour referenced "wtf" (8 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.70×.

Made2026-10-11 01:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 07:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 01:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": -0.3514817186210816,
      "diversity": -0.6767441860465117
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.311348365357222
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wtf",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.015011547344110854,
    "share60": 0.0213339872486513,
    "total15": 432,
    "total60": 2038,
    "momentum": 0.7036447134400468,
    "diversity": 0.18604651162790697,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 326,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932502777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988750462962963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.311348365357222
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 07:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.474
Log loss1.167
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.006359649122807017,
  "shareRatio": 1.3027912645639286,
  "totalAfter": 9120,
  "shareBefore": 0.0048875152734852295,
  "totalBefore": 13913,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 58,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 68
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 31% that "wtf" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.49% → 0.64% (+30%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "wtf" (6H). diversity contributed -0.68 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7e35c211a89dae12b3c0147d9c906af8e345d65af49c8e92bd83f9575ddc2ea4
Previous hash5987cc70cd030cbb390ddcd4cb38c7061d6285eff19faa1e3afda1105bdbccdc