Ledger / Prediction #123 · narrative · 1H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 67% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 1571 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (35 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 1.80×.

Made2026-10-09 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": 0.5892878799243827,
      "diversity": 0.07674418604651163
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6656991256881161
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.04988399071925754,
    "share60": 0.02767175572519084,
    "total15": 430,
    "total60": 1571,
    "momentum": 1.8027042163373068,
    "diversity": 0.813953488372093,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 35
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 190,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943713888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6656991256881161
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.443

Log loss1.096

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02085561497326203,
  "shareRatio": 0.7673012772074679,
  "totalAfter": 1870,
  "shareBefore": 0.02721518987341772,
  "totalBefore": 1580,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 39,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 43
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 67% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.72% → 2.09% (-23%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "dog" (1H). momentum contributed +0.59 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash500c5f0b92434d719a0d7a104994226bd6fc2a595562d1162711d5d6a40c7376

Previous hash0b6eb4e43f9b494ccc199d6510147268929fa0b14d1e24c35bac09c4f6c0e42f