Ledger / Prediction #1241 · narrative · 1H
Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 40% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
109 of 1903 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (12 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.
Made2026-10-11 02:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 03:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 02:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4622864954692565,
"momentum": 0.19930070134421293,
"diversity": -0.7678899082568807
},
"rawProbability": 0.39979899204778574
},
"features": {
"term": "money",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.07019438444924406,
"share60": 0.05751050420168067,
"total15": 462,
"total60": 1903,
"momentum": 1.2205489314279516,
"diversity": 0.11009174311926606,
"launches15": 32,
"launches60": 109,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 12
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 215,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9954833333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954833333333334
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.39979899204778574
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 03:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.360
Log loss0.917
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.059456398640996604,
"shareRatio": 1.0363399375683406,
"totalAfter": 1766,
"shareBefore": 0.05738132498695879,
"totalBefore": 1917,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 105,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 110
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 40% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.74% → 5.95% (+4%). PARTIAL.
— "money" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
45ba46b5bbda78d9660a2b371fac99a7e1affc541cddd627aea3ef11e7b4e207Previous hash
f0c2684d5cff80562c76419f2f160bbf0fc8414b7b1f04139689571d3359fe16