Ledger / Prediction #1242 · narrative · 1H

Will "doobie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 1903 launches in the last hour referenced "doobie" (5 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.24×.

Made2026-10-11 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": 0.21324337752058714,
      "diversity": -0.7823529411764706
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3726765467168039
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "doobie",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.03347732181425486,
    "share60": 0.027048319327731093,
    "total15": 462,
    "total60": 1903,
    "momentum": 1.237685839501772,
    "diversity": 0.09803921568627451,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954833333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954833333333334
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3726765467168039
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 03:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.139

Log loss0.466

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01245753114382786,
  "shareRatio": 0.4742281635815188,
  "totalAfter": 1766,
  "shareBefore": 0.026604068857589983,
  "totalBefore": 1917,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 22,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 37% that "doobie" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.66% → 1.25% (-53%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "doobie" (1H). diversity contributed -0.78 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash282524f79eff4511fb4cbdfed2fc080005d0b209da9db634a1b9566e56acd1db

Previous hash45ba46b5bbda78d9660a2b371fac99a7e1affc541cddd627aea3ef11e7b4e207