Ledger / Prediction #1243 · narrative · 1H
Will "whole" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 67% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
45 of 1903 launches in the last hour referenced "whole" (10 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 3.75×.
Made2026-10-11 02:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 03:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 02:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3295836866004329,
"momentum": 1.3219662625448245,
"diversity": -0.6333333333333333
},
"rawProbability": 0.6722141828911239
},
"features": {
"term": "whole",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.08963282937365011,
"share60": 0.02389705882352941,
"total15": 462,
"total60": 1903,
"momentum": 3.75078916763582,
"diversity": 0.2222222222222222,
"launches15": 41,
"launches60": 45,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 10
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 215,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9954833333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954833333333334
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6722141828911239
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 03:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.107
Log loss0.397
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.04246885617214043,
"shareRatio": 1.5318111377327854,
"totalAfter": 1766,
"shareBefore": 0.02764736567553469,
"totalBefore": 1917,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 75,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 53
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 67% that "whole" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.76% → 4.25% (+54%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "whole" (1H). momentum contributed +1.32 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
9429dc5592b53194bd5dba66efc95edf8477bdb53bc92b02c7e4581e318082f1Previous hash
282524f79eff4511fb4cbdfed2fc080005d0b209da9db634a1b9566e56acd1db