Ledger / Prediction #125 · narrative · 6H

Will "nker" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 1571 launches in the last hour referenced "nker" (25 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.32×.

Made2026-10-09 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 18:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": 0.2746329658714349,
      "diversity": -0.27499999999999997
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48431220124192637
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nker",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.04060324825986079,
    "share60": 0.030852417302798984,
    "total15": 430,
    "total60": 1571,
    "momentum": 1.3160475518453847,
    "diversity": 0.5208333333333334,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 190,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990618981481482
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48431220124192637
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 18:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.235

Log loss0.662

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001029336078229542,
  "shareRatio": 0.16530550190363208,
  "totalAfter": 13601,
  "shareBefore": 0.006386975579211021,
  "totalBefore": 7985,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 48% that "nker" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.64% → 0.10% (-84%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "nker" (6H). diversity contributed -0.27 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8a4652f945bebb7ac2bcdf806ddbb302055d8c29ba46ccd490a92e32c508ee39

Previous hash1b7653dd837c065e9d1b0958ff098b06ee31e65e3c1b041da1ef6eeffa74482a