Will "guy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

12 of 1903 launches in the last hour referenced "guy" (8 distinct creators, rank #97). Last 15m momentum 0.49×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.13132031060308497,
      "momentum": -0.7062783749350146,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.34581662972385113
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "guy",
    "rank60": 97,
    "share15": 0.0032397408207343412,
    "share60": 0.006565126050420168,
    "total15": 462,
    "total60": 1903,
    "momentum": 0.49347732181425485,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 12,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954833333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998118055555556
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.34581662972385113
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0032314016204528714,
  "shareRatio": 0.8305198631438889,
  "totalAfter": 42087,
  "shareBefore": 0.0038946973799308536,
  "totalBefore": 48014,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 136,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 187
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity