Ledger / Prediction #1254 · token · 6H

Will $MCH still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 2% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 34 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-11 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "CWsPNkys748jPwkhkYqTzrFpvbHQM4C2fyYnPMpvpump",
    "name": "MoonChacha",
    "symbol": "MCH",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2542.596743369421,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 34
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 699,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 08:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.023

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T02:16:03.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 531.0873328044981,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3881.4832208371404,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2542.596743369421,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5085.193486738842
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 2% that $MCH would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $531, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $MCH (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9f80c720807fcfa3ad4c5f53a4d557a2c4ae1ac890066365c02b37aa1682a9dd

Previous hash2e4ede0767a8d30c5e105daf70f0860307846093a093960810bbc5faff858364