Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

66 of 1762 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (46 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.79×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3870325244388488,
      "momentum": -0.23468568369855758,
      "diversity": -0.06363636363636357
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.44737325953773643
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.029829545454545456,
    "share60": 0.03771979580260919,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1762,
    "momentum": 0.7908193779904307,
    "diversity": 0.696969696969697,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 66,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 46
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 214,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971511111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971511111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.44737325953773643
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.05183585313174946,
  "shareRatio": 1.3653876898481216,
  "totalAfter": 1389,
  "shareBefore": 0.037938844847112116,
  "totalBefore": 1766,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 72,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 67
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity