Ledger / Prediction #1279 · narrative · 6H
Will "nigger" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
35 of 1762 launches in the last hour referenced "nigger" (4 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.
Made2026-10-11 03:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 09:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 03:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.291886522358297,
"momentum": -2.6515388702415423,
"diversity": -0.7628571428571428
},
"rawProbability": 0.07686274403878482
},
"features": {
"term": "nigger",
"rank60": 16,
"share15": 0.0014204545454545455,
"share60": 0.02013613159387408,
"total15": 351,
"total60": 1762,
"momentum": 0.07054257362355953,
"diversity": 0.11428571428571428,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 35,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 214,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9971511111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995251851851852
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.07686274403878482
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 09:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.006
Log loss0.080
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00307416421160497,
"shareRatio": 0.7885721973836728,
"totalAfter": 7807,
"shareBefore": 0.0039392234102419805,
"totalBefore": 12439,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 24,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 49
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 8% that "nigger" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.39% → 0.31% (-22%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "nigger" (6H). momentum contributed -2.65 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
69e796d0f9810dce6d57ae1fcb623e904e15a5b20219276b28786691bf25c076Previous hash
daf50b3706eca5529d8ae5ad9c49ea88fc0604e411ba6e2c3bebec80011d22e9