Ledger / Prediction #128 · narrative · 6H
Will "cute" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1571 launches in the last hour referenced "cute" (5 distinct creators, rank #179). Last 15m momentum 0.99×.
Made2026-10-09 12:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 18:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": -0.005287101244856802,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.4765918814667657
},
"features": {
"term": "cute",
"rank60": 179,
"share15": 0.0034802784222737818,
"share60": 0.003498727735368957,
"total15": 430,
"total60": 1571,
"momentum": 0.9947268508753427,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 190,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990618981481482
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4765918814667657
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 18:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.227
Log loss0.647
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0005881920447025954,
"shareRatio": 0.3992412880458756,
"totalAfter": 13601,
"shareBefore": 0.0015028177833437697,
"totalBefore": 7985,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 8,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 12
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 48% that "cute" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.06% (-61%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "cute" (6H). momentum contributed -0.01 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
b8b53cc06bf3d69edc0d63050f978f654b5dc5aa627e882d43ccc85f5b24773ePrevious hash
1a8a3e3c7d03534ab6206840c5dd26e68b79983064c81d85c55d847329f07a14