Ledger / Prediction #1290 · narrative · 1H

Will "pepe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 1457 launches in the last hour referenced "pepe" (9 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.08×.

Made2026-10-11 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": 0.07516927498855555,
      "diversity": -0.6
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3708158105346348
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pepe",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.026988636363636364,
    "share60": 0.025034293552812073,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1457,
    "momentum": 1.078066625155666,
    "diversity": 0.25,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 180,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935444444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935444444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3708158105346348
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.137

Log loss0.463

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02201974183750949,
  "shareRatio": 0.8803743045017702,
  "totalAfter": 1317,
  "shareBefore": 0.025101763907734057,
  "totalBefore": 1474,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 29,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 37
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 37% that "pepe" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.51% → 2.20% (-12%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "pepe" (1H). diversity contributed -0.60 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9f2b331f901fead1ccfb6a1ef93cd7b4d78b7ebaaf276154eceb5032c274efc4

Previous hashe28127443a5e5ece91da2a796d373042155c66607e2ddb2090a644491dc08a11