Will "pokemon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1457 launches in the last hour referenced "pokemon" (6 distinct creators, rank #138). Last 15m momentum 0.96×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -0.0451473318229207,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4955503428972998
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pokemon",
    "rank60": 138,
    "share15": 0.004261363636363636,
    "share60": 0.004458161865569273,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1457,
    "momentum": 0.9558566433566433,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 180,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935444444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935444444444445
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4955503428972998
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0037965072133637054,
  "shareRatio": 0.9469475895879538,
  "totalAfter": 1317,
  "shareBefore": 0.004070556309362279,
  "totalBefore": 1474,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity