GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1294 · narrative · 6H

Will "intelligence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1457 launches in the last hour referenced "intelligence" (27 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.

Made2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 10:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 03:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": 0.29400407585834065,
      "diversity": 0.025714285714285755
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5319871093278224
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "intelligence",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.032670454545454544,
    "share60": 0.024348422496570644,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1457,
    "momentum": 1.3417893725992318,
    "diversity": 0.7714285714285715,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 180,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935444444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998924074074074
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5319871093278224
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 10:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.283
Log loss0.759
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.009631654301705064,
  "shareRatio": 0.37949492769263976,
  "totalAfter": 7683,
  "shareBefore": 0.025508932280847527,
  "totalBefore": 12035,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 74,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 307
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "intelligence" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.55% → 0.96% (-62%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "intelligence" (6H). momentum contributed +0.29 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0fdd55a0193a39a1c06fa8397f1d5737d255a6e555bf9ffd371d19033d77f6af
Previous hash603bb92e0ef7d849c3001b4a2985cdbdf9d794b92bfeb1fe00c12cea919b116a