Will "intelligence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
35 of 1457 launches in the last hour referenced "intelligence" (27 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.291886522358297,
"momentum": 0.29400407585834065,
"diversity": 0.025714285714285755
},
"rawProbability": 0.5319871093278224
},
"features": {
"term": "intelligence",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.032670454545454544,
"share60": 0.024348422496570644,
"total15": 351,
"total60": 1457,
"momentum": 1.3417893725992318,
"diversity": 0.7714285714285715,
"launches15": 11,
"launches60": 35,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 27
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 180,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9935444444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.998924074074074
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5319871093278224
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.009631654301705064,
"shareRatio": 0.37949492769263976,
"totalAfter": 7683,
"shareBefore": 0.025508932280847527,
"totalBefore": 12035,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 74,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 307
}Predicted 53% that "intelligence" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.55% → 0.96% (-62%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "intelligence" (6H). momentum contributed +0.29 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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