Will "sgi" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 1457 launches in the last hour referenced "sgi" (23 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": -0.41502149482838246,
      "diversity": -0.08823529411764701
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.38912234929874295
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sgi",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.015625,
    "share60": 0.023662551440329218,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1457,
    "momentum": 0.6603260869565217,
    "diversity": 0.6764705882352942,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 180,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935444444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998924074074074
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.38912234929874295
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005206299622543278,
  "shareRatio": 0.19855415679920227,
  "totalAfter": 7683,
  "shareBefore": 0.0029081844619858743,
  "totalBefore": 12035,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 35
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity