Will "pepe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 1457 launches in the last hour referenced "pepe" (9 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.08×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": 0.07516927498855555,
      "diversity": -0.6
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3978673083259111
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pepe",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.026988636363636364,
    "share60": 0.025034293552812073,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1457,
    "momentum": 1.078066625155666,
    "diversity": 0.25,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 180,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935444444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997310185185185
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3978673083259111
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015338669215147533,
  "shareRatio": 2.824385873631156,
  "totalAfter": 41855,
  "shareBefore": 0.005424418358265882,
  "totalBefore": 47194,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 642,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 256
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity