Ledger / Prediction #1299 · narrative · 24H

Will "sgi" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 1457 launches in the last hour referenced "sgi" (23 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

Made2026-10-11 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": -0.41502149482838246,
      "diversity": -0.08823529411764701
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.39942555609315705
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sgi",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.015625,
    "share60": 0.023662551440329218,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1457,
    "momentum": 0.6603260869565217,
    "diversity": 0.6764705882352942,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 180,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935444444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997310185185185
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.39942555609315705
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.160

Log loss0.510

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005256241787122207,
  "shareRatio": 0.6264202132178049,
  "totalAfter": 41855,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008475653684790439,
  "totalBefore": 47194,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 22,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 40
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "sgi" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.05% (-38%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "sgi" (24H). momentum contributed -0.42 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5318ef79ff9b768aeb138095be6335c6a7f10cfa0f15d14d3f94697bed569642

Previous hash329db700774fa681c37b5666b33366a1a1c2071be6f89f530793c3aa94547447