Ledger / Prediction #1300 · narrative · 24H
Will "data" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
8 of 1457 launches in the last hour referenced "data" (7 distinct creators, rank #77). Last 15m momentum 2.19×.
Made2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 03:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.07050054438686033,
"momentum": 0.7852009702505097,
"diversity": 0.15
},
"rawProbability": 0.5505395062879636
},
"features": {
"term": "data",
"rank60": 77,
"share15": 0.01278409090909091,
"share60": 0.005829903978052126,
"total15": 351,
"total60": 1457,
"momentum": 2.1928475935828877,
"diversity": 0.875,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 8,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 180,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9935444444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997310185185185
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5505395062879636
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 04:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.303
Log loss0.800
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0017919006092462072,
"shareRatio": 0.5510065176459527,
"totalAfter": 41855,
"shareBefore": 0.003263126668644319,
"totalBefore": 47194,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 75,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 154
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 55% that "data" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.18% (-45%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "data" (24H). momentum contributed +0.79 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
158f3353d1781b4ce548f14cd05413fe14a553d5f1efa839a931fd215850da47Previous hash
5318ef79ff9b768aeb138095be6335c6a7f10cfa0f15d14d3f94697bed569642