Ledger / Prediction #1304 · token · 6H

Will $RA still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 24m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "agent".

Made2026-10-11 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14874997896424488
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "6xBAzrnszMLSsuwG5zqJkTb677pVTqcPYeck3qZhpump",
    "name": "Recursive Agent",
    "symbol": "RA",
    "hotTerms": [
      "agent",
      "chain"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 24,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 194,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 5160.485949835476,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 436,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.14874997896424488
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 10:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.022

Log loss0.161

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T08:02:55.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3068.3722532506995,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 7047.267398155215,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 5160.485949835476,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 10320.971899670953
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 15% that $RA would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,068, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $RA (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdae7fa94c28081dbb1166a7009c6fb99aabd33dd46afe0c6eb883565929e717c

Previous hashf0f11e417925384a26c1dd78a2a75b3415c4843f1bfccc8ef2458757bbad9a6b