Will "travel" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 1386 launches in the last hour referenced "travel" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": 0.29051198508614695,
      "diversity": -0.8181818181818182
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.391497961864767
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "travel",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.042899408284023666,
    "share60": 0.03208363374188897,
    "total15": 337,
    "total60": 1386,
    "momentum": 1.3371118941559736,
    "diversity": 0.06818181818181818,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 226,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985405555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997567592592592
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.391497961864767
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007860605266605528,
  "shareRatio": 0.20676888711167493,
  "totalAfter": 7633,
  "shareBefore": 0.004074908964799722,
  "totalBefore": 11534,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity