GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1314 · narrative · 24H

Will "veria" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1386 launches in the last hour referenced "veria" (16 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 4.10×.

Made2026-10-11 04:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 04:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": 1.4118525248318128,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6053938120186486
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "veria",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.08431952662721894,
    "share60": 0.02054794520547945,
    "total15": 337,
    "total60": 1386,
    "momentum": 4.103550295857988,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 28,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 226,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985405555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999391898148148
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6053938120186486
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 04:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.156
Log loss0.502
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006673180962368026,
  "shareRatio": 1.1186844613918019,
  "totalAfter": 41959,
  "shareBefore": 0.0005965188862140225,
  "totalBefore": 46939,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 28
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "veria" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.06% → 0.07% (+12%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "veria" (24H). momentum contributed +1.41 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe389f01d644c33de630b09712f46a82fd8dfb360701305fbb4b3b28782f5c3fa
Previous hashc033b207107cd290dcc65bc347915435a1e7de2d9a13e8dd2d8025f53d60a56e