Ledger / Prediction #1316 · narrative · 24H
Will "views" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1386 launches in the last hour referenced "views" (5 distinct creators, rank #239). Last 15m momentum 0.37×.
Made2026-10-11 04:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 04:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": -0.9860427479665577,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.34456387338841765
},
"features": {
"term": "views",
"rank60": 239,
"share15": 0.0014792899408284023,
"share60": 0.003965392934390771,
"total15": 337,
"total60": 1386,
"momentum": 0.3730500268961808,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 226,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9985405555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999391898148148
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.34456387338841765
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 04:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.119
Log loss0.423
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0018112919754998927,
"shareRatio": 0.8600940833816365,
"totalAfter": 41959,
"shareBefore": 0.0021091203476852937,
"totalBefore": 46939,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 76,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 99
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 34% that "views" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.21% → 0.18% (-14%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "views" (24H). momentum contributed -0.99 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
e0598fd9f34e6587a3dd5868c1d967fb45071557f10398518bb604afb3a7631bPrevious hash
fe1c2804a894a3aea8cbfb5c8e9b4ec8de038c0a7bb82d88d1ee4592b7fdd979