GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1316 · narrative · 24H

Will "views" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1386 launches in the last hour referenced "views" (5 distinct creators, rank #239). Last 15m momentum 0.37×.

Made2026-10-11 04:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 04:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.9860427479665577,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.34456387338841765
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "views",
    "rank60": 239,
    "share15": 0.0014792899408284023,
    "share60": 0.003965392934390771,
    "total15": 337,
    "total60": 1386,
    "momentum": 0.3730500268961808,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 226,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985405555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999391898148148
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.34456387338841765
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 04:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.119
Log loss0.423
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0018112919754998927,
  "shareRatio": 0.8600940833816365,
  "totalAfter": 41959,
  "shareBefore": 0.0021091203476852937,
  "totalBefore": 46939,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 76,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 99
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "views" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.21% → 0.18% (-14%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "views" (24H). momentum contributed -0.99 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe0598fd9f34e6587a3dd5868c1d967fb45071557f10398518bb604afb3a7631b
Previous hashfe1c2804a894a3aea8cbfb5c8e9b4ec8de038c0a7bb82d88d1ee4592b7fdd979