Ledger / Prediction #1318 · token · 6H

Will $$SWEETCAT still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 18m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "cat".

Made2026-10-11 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 10:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 04:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07984616815180759
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "GZVSrQ8B3yFb1ri5ajFnMD5VriXcNH1sW52eXw4Tpump",
    "name": "SWEETCAT",
    "symbol": "$SWEETCAT",
    "hotTerms": [
      "cat",
      "crypto",
      "viral"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 18,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 986,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3077.67341839468,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 441,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07984616815180759
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 10:31 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.006

Log loss0.083

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T04:24:17.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3383.778814453152,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3415.7714096735212,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3077.67341839468,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6155.34683678936
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 8% that $$SWEETCAT would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,384, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $$SWEETCAT (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9a9960fde54573a54be167cbfbbcf1755ad3b96669284f96da328aae8840e5d0

Previous hash8efc51ec3b10659eab9cc6420be0952d7feb08553419c09fd97a527b78cf5532