Ledger / Prediction #1325 · narrative · 6H
Will "extremely" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 70% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
33 of 1311 launches in the last hour referenced "extremely" (22 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 4.30×.
Made2026-10-11 05:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 11:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 04:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.28306044735485697,
"momentum": 1.4589961928966226,
"diversity": -0.10000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.7004495826816526
},
"features": {
"term": "extremely",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.10983606557377049,
"share60": 0.025533536585365852,
"total15": 304,
"total60": 1311,
"momentum": 4.301639344262295,
"diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
"launches15": 33,
"launches60": 33,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 22
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 274,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9952141666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992023611111112
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7004495826816526
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 11:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.491
Log loss1.205
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0014308012486992717,
"shareRatio": 0.48842793445957877,
"totalAfter": 7688,
"shareBefore": 0.0030167291342901546,
"totalBefore": 10939,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 11,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 33
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 70% that "extremely" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.30% → 0.14% (-53%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "extremely" (6H). momentum contributed +1.46 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
f82f88a68a65ac644bfd6a5d7c98e0eef26db121f2c0b6d60633513c8ec549a8Previous hash
98b0f15116543428d4d19fc19e0d11883cd8ec3b98770dbbc83565eb149c1b5e