Ledger / Prediction #133 · narrative · 1H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
74 of 1784 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (14 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.85×.
Made2026-10-09 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 12:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.40419407711551036,
"momentum": 0.614506877904097,
"diversity": -0.6729729729729729
},
"rawProbability": 0.5114300038568506
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.07716049382716049,
"share60": 0.041736694677871146,
"total15": 485,
"total60": 1784,
"momentum": 1.8487447178722347,
"diversity": 0.1891891891891892,
"launches15": 37,
"launches60": 74,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 14
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 194,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9996561111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996561111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5114300038568506
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.262
Log loss0.716
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.010828370330265295,
"shareRatio": 0.2659359656003952,
"totalAfter": 1847,
"shareBefore": 0.04145658263305322,
"totalBefore": 1785,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 20,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 74
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 51% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.15% → 1.08% (-74%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.61 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
386e695271023d435bbe61e3a88add069fd4756a784c9ffbb63ca08a3bcab6c6Previous hash
7365aef0eb7849ff12911567687d29e71c9402024e8efdbed59258ce6f213326