Ledger / Prediction #1334 · token · 6H

Will $Motion still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 13m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 18 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-11 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "mvoKePAQDXH96DaDxgd9JYcqpnT2RWDWbNZTy2bpump",
    "name": "Motion",
    "symbol": "Motion",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 13,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 6,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3062.9077355257223,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 18
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 438,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 11:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T04:47:03.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3062.9077355257223,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4392.45524732899,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3062.9077355257223,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6125.815471051445
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $Motion would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,063, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Motion (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5b69d6fd467449f8a5c0b8e34dcc6eda814b516cc4e96091f46c9aacc6a4ccc1

Previous hasha08bf23e6e91fd00c83ad460958c16921e41f317cccedc1e70319ad0f799a39b