Ledger / Prediction #1337 · narrative · 1H

Will "full" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 1284 launches in the last hour referenced "full" (5 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.62×.

Made2026-10-11 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 05:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": 0.4806935711160777,
      "diversity": -0.7666666666666666
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.43625147766977945
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "full",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.05726256983240224,
    "share60": 0.035408560311284046,
    "total15": 357,
    "total60": 1284,
    "momentum": 1.6171956535085028,
    "diversity": 0.1111111111111111,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999277777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999277777777777
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.43625147766977945
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.190

Log loss0.573

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01699524133242692,
  "shareRatio": 0.4892424151935022,
  "totalAfter": 1471,
  "shareBefore": 0.035046728971962614,
  "totalBefore": 1284,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 25,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 45
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "full" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.50% → 1.70% (-52%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "full" (1H). diversity contributed -0.77 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashadd80b31c8b90fcff79d52c66f00d27a746f0fad18e458c61aa485483c0cebbb

Previous hash7b932fb0ac8a4eb1087aad44ac872b7f6b470596fa31d25c168f4c5f86a8a40d