Will "happy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 1284 launches in the last hour referenced "happy" (3 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.61×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": 0.4756345384036826,
      "diversity": -0.8162790697674418
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.42119244583216375
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "happy",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.05446927374301676,
    "share60": 0.03385214007782101,
    "total15": 357,
    "total60": 1284,
    "momentum": 1.60903486804084,
    "diversity": 0.06976744186046512,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999277777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999277777777777
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.42119244583216375
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.019034670292318152,
  "shareRatio": 0.571940592203898,
  "totalAfter": 1471,
  "shareBefore": 0.03348909657320872,
  "totalBefore": 1284,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 43
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity