Will "doginvest" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
40 of 1284 launches in the last hour referenced "doginvest" (17 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 3.59×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3119162312519754,
"momentum": 1.27798101092862,
"diversity": -0.39
},
"rawProbability": 0.5744299567621
},
"features": {
"term": "doginvest",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.11312849162011174,
"share60": 0.03151750972762646,
"total15": 357,
"total60": 1284,
"momentum": 3.5893854748603355,
"diversity": 0.425,
"launches15": 40,
"launches60": 40,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 17
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 215,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999277777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999969907407408
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5744299567621
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.00002374845635033723,
"shareRatio": 0.04007585591838965,
"totalAfter": 42108,
"shareBefore": 0.0008781699794379712,
"totalBefore": 46688,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 1,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 41
}Predicted 57% that "doginvest" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.09% → 0.00% (-97%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "doginvest" (24H). momentum contributed +1.28 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
2f35608290caae88f375ec0f7474d00397b8764b838f1224842dbd362bd9b818b0c99b014e4d542be531c3bce4dc8c1e625b4771c8ae65f4a068dc9e4b1747b1