Ledger / Prediction #1347 · narrative · 24H
Will "invest" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
34 of 1284 launches in the last hour referenced "invest" (17 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 3.59×.
Made2026-10-11 05:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 05:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 05:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.28753839182730917,
"momentum": 1.2779810109286198,
"diversity": -0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5824307028000337
},
"features": {
"term": "invest",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.09636871508379888,
"share60": 0.026848249027237352,
"total15": 357,
"total60": 1284,
"momentum": 3.589385474860335,
"diversity": 0.5,
"launches15": 34,
"launches60": 34,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 17
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 215,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9999277777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999969907407408
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5824307028000337
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 05:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.339
Log loss0.873
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0006649567778094424,
"shareRatio": 0.5798130714064265,
"totalAfter": 42108,
"shareBefore": 0.001156614119259767,
"totalBefore": 46688,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 28,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 54
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 58% that "invest" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.07% (-43%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "invest" (24H). momentum contributed +1.28 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
5bbb54b61ff0b2eabf14c0bde07b783ced7beec18cc3df0ec1399a8ebc890d37Previous hash
2f35608290caae88f375ec0f7474d00397b8764b838f1224842dbd362bd9b818