GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1353 · narrative · 1H

Will "incognito" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 72% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

79 of 1402 launches in the last hour referenced "incognito" (44 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 2.95×.

Made2026-10-11 06:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 05:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41400149100493816,
      "momentum": 1.081565295085716,
      "diversity": -0.23164556962025318
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7239062107010378
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "incognito",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.1671195652173913,
    "share60": 0.05666429080541696,
    "total15": 367,
    "total60": 1402,
    "momentum": 2.9492924528301887,
    "diversity": 0.5569620253164557,
    "launches15": 61,
    "launches60": 79,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 44
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 192,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9966022222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9966022222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7239062107010378
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 07:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.524
Log loss1.287
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.055762081784386616,
  "shareRatio": 0.9817863833950145,
  "totalAfter": 1345,
  "shareBefore": 0.056818181818181816,
  "totalBefore": 1408,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 75,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 80
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 72% that "incognito" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.68% → 5.58% (-2%). PARTIAL.

— "incognito" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash683321a1b9e189613f82cd242920bb5ab94eef161644ccb921916684a825d629
Previous hash574985d34aa0cfe19389306e710f31fd1b35cacd91c5484d66aadd7e0400a66d