Will "incognito" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
79 of 1402 launches in the last hour referenced "incognito" (44 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 2.95×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.41400149100493816,
"momentum": 1.081565295085716,
"diversity": -0.23164556962025318
},
"rawProbability": 0.582236346417146
},
"features": {
"term": "incognito",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.1671195652173913,
"share60": 0.05666429080541696,
"total15": 367,
"total60": 1402,
"momentum": 2.9492924528301887,
"diversity": 0.5569620253164557,
"launches15": 61,
"launches60": 79,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 44
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 192,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9966022222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998584259259259
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.582236346417146
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.002643045931852275,
"shareRatio": 1.546398246115831,
"totalAfter": 41997,
"shareBefore": 0.0017061934823408974,
"totalBefore": 46888,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 111,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 80
}Predicted 58% that "incognito" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.26% (+55%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "incognito" (24H). momentum contributed +1.08 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
d2d804f46d2fdc6fdee3417618c59641b0abcbf971eb97b354de03e343902abaf42b590638c05a2acce216f15993a21c36a44f2a4902095ddbafe8c0de5d19b8