Will "incognito69420" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
67 of 1402 launches in the last hour referenced "incognito69420" (38 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 3.08×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3892882060435298,
"momentum": 1.1243582457242443,
"diversity": -0.21940298507462688
},
"rawProbability": 0.5859194331800128
},
"features": {
"term": "incognito69420",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.1480978260869565,
"share60": 0.0481111903064861,
"total15": 367,
"total60": 1402,
"momentum": 3.078240740740741,
"diversity": 0.5671641791044776,
"launches15": 54,
"launches60": 67,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 38
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 192,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9966022222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998584259259259
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5859194331800128
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.000976260209062552,
"shareRatio": 0.6864148733713951,
"totalAfter": 41997,
"shareBefore": 0.0014289370414605016,
"totalBefore": 46888,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 41,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 67
}Predicted 59% that "incognito69420" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.14% → 0.10% (-32%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "incognito69420" (24H). momentum contributed +1.12 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
b3f7ed86352e4beedcd7e0966c40427068255c5a1e44b93a4bc639328f25e760d2d804f46d2fdc6fdee3417618c59641b0abcbf971eb97b354de03e343902aba