Will "mony" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

92 of 1462 launches in the last hour referenced "mony" (4 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.59×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.436852599692241,
      "momentum": 0.46443870535232157,
      "diversity": -0.8478260869565217
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.43473098223264145
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mony",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.1006006006006006,
    "share60": 0.06322624743677376,
    "total15": 332,
    "total60": 1462,
    "momentum": 1.5911208505803098,
    "diversity": 0.043478260869565216,
    "launches15": 33,
    "launches60": 92,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 169,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935361111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989226851851852
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.43473098223264145
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005574280528908478,
  "shareRatio": 0.5134291627716668,
  "totalAfter": 7714,
  "shareBefore": 0.010932280595201944,
  "totalBefore": 9879,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 43,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 108
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity