Ledger / Prediction #1391 · narrative · 6H
Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
26 of 1343 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (25 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 1.18×.
Made2026-10-11 07:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 13:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 07:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.24729879383810724,
"momentum": 0.16661226308877472,
"diversity": 0.2538461538461539
},
"rawProbability": 0.541760003209599
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 14,
"share15": 0.023291925465838508,
"share60": 0.019717261904761904,
"total15": 321,
"total60": 1343,
"momentum": 1.1812961443806398,
"diversity": 0.9615384615384616,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 26,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 25
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 152,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9984825,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997470833333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.541760003209599
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 13:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.294
Log loss0.780
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.009342254765812397,
"shareRatio": 0.6287755796956267,
"totalAfter": 7921,
"shareBefore": 0.01490471627807942,
"totalBefore": 9393,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 74,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 140
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "quantum" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.49% → 0.93% (-37%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "quantum" (6H). diversity contributed +0.25 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
e2b668b8cf1a3ebaf5c05e06f2c0a58241c9dbb20a73b7d2fe2c3a1d0d6ddd11Previous hash
80f3e038497dcbeb800ac651c486cf18f95568f23c241ba0e922d65a4c16f4c7