Ledger / Prediction #1394 · narrative · 24H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
38 of 1343 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (22 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.46×.
Made2026-10-11 07:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 07:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3042222370938428,
"momentum": 0.38088541968933187,
"diversity": -0.20526315789473681
},
"rawProbability": 0.48498507824768067
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.04192546583850932,
"share60": 0.028645833333333332,
"total15": 321,
"total60": 1343,
"momentum": 1.4635798983625072,
"diversity": 0.5789473684210527,
"launches15": 13,
"launches60": 38,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 22
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 152,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9984825,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999367708333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.48498507824768067
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 07:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.235
Log loss0.664
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.02344048073254483,
"shareRatio": 0.7156884845823317,
"totalAfter": 41936,
"shareBefore": 0.03275829061283529,
"totalBefore": 47011,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 983,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 1540
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 49% that "uxento" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 3.28% → 2.34% (-28%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "uxento" (24H). diversity contributed -0.21 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
ed90bdcdb04441b0cb43b1b89ca58f0f564a1474bb0769964fb39272414f4a14Previous hash
60906f74ca49cb6bbdd47903a72c3305123933a10ac96beca516d5429c7378ec