Ledger / Prediction #14 · token · 6H

Will $AI still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 4% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 27m ago. website. Rides hot term "inu". Creator launched 4 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-09 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04131095796590443
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "9ujQ14ikC3VRyShLvJ791mK9MnDXb63taXifzDXiFxgi",
    "name": "Artificial Inu",
    "symbol": "AI",
    "hotTerms": [
      "inu"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 27,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3090.027959302479,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 4
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 475,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04131095796590443
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 12:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.042

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T05:33:03.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3090.027959302479,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3236.129678526548,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3090.027959302479,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6180.055918604958
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 4% that $AI would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,090, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $AI (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7fc2b4f70077c6c2e4c591f71729b962e88deea66210d6ffe1a8964b73f10887

Previous hash8037db3e24b7e67b85d32edbcff2b6d46fc39e809c9d3282c7c6c035a36cb43e