Ledger / Prediction #140 · narrative · 6H

Will "remember" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1784 launches in the last hour referenced "remember" (3 distinct creators, rank #136). Last 15m momentum 0.73×.

Made2026-10-09 12:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 18:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 12:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -0.30847284212085463,
      "diversity": -0.38571428571428573
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.32069027188794647
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "remember",
    "rank60": 136,
    "share15": 0.0030864197530864196,
    "share60": 0.004201680672268907,
    "total15": 485,
    "total60": 1784,
    "momentum": 0.7345679012345679,
    "diversity": 0.42857142857142855,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996561111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999426851851851
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.32069027188794647
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 18:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.103

Log loss0.387

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0017326017903551833,
  "shareRatio": 0.7516875915056814,
  "totalAfter": 13852,
  "shareBefore": 0.00229274767708459,
  "totalBefore": 8287,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 19
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 32% that "remember" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.17% (-24%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "remember" (6H). diversity contributed -0.39 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash58e89183245418a4a60aca44356154a2338030530fdd73b52c52d81586a44b94

Previous hash84bafa080ba5a152242940ad02e74166bfd95d731b5be923d344694a0de30cb3