Will "incognito" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 1281 launches in the last hour referenced "incognito" (28 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.58×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": -0.5392092138897977,
      "diversity": -0.16956521739130428
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.337178354906237
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "incognito",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.021153846153846155,
    "share60": 0.03627145085803432,
    "total15": 259,
    "total60": 1281,
    "momentum": 0.5832092638544252,
    "diversity": 0.6086956521739131,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 28
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 139,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949352777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949352777777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.337178354906237
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009157509157509158,
  "shareRatio": 0.03738623778109501,
  "totalAfter": 1092,
  "shareBefore": 0.03634957463263728,
  "totalBefore": 1293,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity