Ledger / Prediction #1430 · token · 6H
Will $67cat still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 2% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 23m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 23 tokens in the last hour.
Made2026-10-11 08:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 14:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 07:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0,
"twitter": 0,
"website": 0,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": -0.8
},
"rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
},
"features": {
"mint": "CCe7wmxLsjYjWcSV1h365yCTuSvk3zMBXdb3nq5cpump",
"name": "67cat",
"symbol": "67cat",
"hotTerms": [],
"ageMinutes": 23,
"hasTwitter": false,
"hasWebsite": false,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 35,
"marketCapAtObservation": 3871.6777813586054,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 23
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 410,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 14:01 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.001
Log loss0.023
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"graduated": false,
"replyCount": 0,
"lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T07:37:32.000Z",
"marketCapUsd": 662.4469122439908,
"athMarketCapUsd": 6711.1401718954,
"tradedInFinal15m": false,
"launchMarketCapUsd": 3871.6777813586054,
"marketCapThresholdUsd": 7743.355562717211
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 2% that $67cat would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $662, no recent trades). CORRECT.
— serialCreator pointed the right way on $67cat (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
186d45d5589644578ae15e286caf1f564dfd57790310203adf741e557b093e71Previous hash
e14f8e7bc0e06ab3fa0527d05820c95fa0ba0eaeba3f7838df265bb8b32de743