Ledger / Prediction #1432 · token · 6H

Will $$AURA still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 26m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "aura".

Made2026-10-11 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07984616815180759
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "FghMM6GV9RbFhYVoSck5mkf8qb3PMrvB6z392JZmpump",
    "name": "AURACOIN",
    "symbol": "$AURA",
    "hotTerms": [
      "aura",
      "around",
      "confidence",
      "energy",
      "vibes",
      "represents",
      "simple",
      "mascot",
      "keeps"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 26,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 186,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 797.313395069871,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 410,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07984616815180759
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 14:01 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.006

Log loss0.083

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T07:37:56.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 212.46048939014625,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3347.217379188841,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 797.313395069871,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 8% that $$AURA would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $212, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $$AURA (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4ce7bf8d9bd77837b9a3822f9891c1a07894cc1064941396edc7ea37b3abf8ba

Previous hash14f2dd9cdfb5d09bd955057663baccbae0c8e46829853b1b3b770a87193bd30b