Ledger / Prediction #1433 · narrative · 1H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
74 of 1088 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (21 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.61×.
Made2026-10-11 08:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 09:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 08:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.40419407711551036,
"momentum": 0.47916049990043397,
"diversity": -0.5594594594594594
},
"rawProbability": 0.5059734951646413
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.11046511627906977,
"share60": 0.06841138659320478,
"total15": 257,
"total60": 1088,
"momentum": 1.6147182768846573,
"diversity": 0.28378378378378377,
"launches15": 28,
"launches60": 74,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 21
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 159,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9971666666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971666666666666
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5059734951646413
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 09:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.244
Log loss0.681
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.08528951486697965,
"shareRatio": 1.256051550340818,
"totalAfter": 1278,
"shareBefore": 0.06776556776556776,
"totalBefore": 1092,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 109,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 74
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 51% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.78% → 8.53% (+26%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.48 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
e022bbccfd23c47cabd243706191c39e8f7fc07f79329f9b9d4b3db52030544dPrevious hash
4ce7bf8d9bd77837b9a3822f9891c1a07894cc1064941396edc7ea37b3abf8ba