Will "tiger" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

58 of 1088 launches in the last hour referenced "tiger" (5 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.06×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3676507647168478,
      "momentum": 0.720932871048137,
      "diversity": -0.796551724137931
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4980079884462252
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tiger",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.11046511627906977,
    "share60": 0.05371900826446281,
    "total15": 257,
    "total60": 1088,
    "momentum": 2.0563506261180677,
    "diversity": 0.08620689655172414,
    "launches15": 28,
    "launches60": 58,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 159,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971666666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971666666666666
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4980079884462252
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03912363067292645,
  "shareRatio": 0.7377090809459848,
  "totalAfter": 1278,
  "shareBefore": 0.05311355311355311,
  "totalBefore": 1092,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 50,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 58
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity